Hurricane season is vastly approaching. As we head into the 2026 storm season, predictions are already brewing from AccuWeather, suggesting up to 11-16 storms with 3-5 having direct impacts in the United States. Although these predictions indicate slightly less activity than previous seasons, there are still underlying risks within the supply chain that brokers and clients alike should start preparing for now to avoid coverage gaps and transit delays.
What to Expect in the 2026 Hurricane Season
Here are the overarching highlights of what we can expect this season, according to AccuWeather:
- 11–16 named storms
- 4–8 hurricanes
- 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3+)
- 3–5 direct U.S. impacts
There are several factors that are shaping the overall risk outlook for these forecasts. The possible development of El Niño may reduce Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear, which can disrupt storm formation, while typically boosting storm activity in the Pacific. At the same time, unusually warm ocean temperatures could fuel stronger storms and increase the chance of rapid intensification. Greater variability in storm development and track patterns may also make storms harder to predict.
Why “Below Average” Doesn’t Mean Lower Risk
Seasonal projections are often focused on frequency, but the losses are driven by severity.
Even just one storm can:
- Shut down major ports and logistics hubs
- Disrupt inland transportation and distribution networks
- Delay time-sensitive cargo shipments
- Trigger accumulation losses across storage locations
In today’s environment, storms are more likely to rapidly intensify, reducing the time available to secure cargo or adjust operations.
Key Considerations for Brokers and Clients
Interconnected Supply Chain Exposure
Cargo moves through a connected network of touchpoints, from ports and warehouses to final delivery. When one part is disrupted, the impact can extend across the entire supply chain.
High-Value Concentration Risk
Concentrated values in ports or warehouses can lead to significant losses during storm events when visibility is limited.
Transit Delays and Time-Sensitive Cargo
Storm-related delays can result in spoilage, missed delivery windows, or contractual penalties, especially perishable or high-value goods.
Inland Marine Exposure
Hurricane impacts are not limited to coastal areas. Inland flooding, wind damage, and job site disruption can affect equipment and materials far from landfall.
Coverage Misalignment
Traditional policies may not fully reflect how goods move across transit and storage. Gaps can emerge when coverage is not aligned to real-world operations.
Best Practices to Start Preparing
- Review and Validate Exposure Data
- Ensure cargo values reflect current replacement cost
- Update schedules to account for new or relocated inventory
- Identify key accumulation points
- Align Coverage with Reality
- Confirm coverage extends across transit and storage
- Address gaps where responsibility shifts between parties
- Evaluate how delay, spoilage, or disruption is handled
- Strengthen Risk Management Strategies
- Monitor weather trends and emerging storm activity
- Develop contingency plans for rerouting or storage
- Establish clear communication protocols during disruptions
Key Takeaways
While early forecasts, including AccuWeather’s, suggest the 2026 hurricane season may not be record-breaking, NOAA’s official outlook, typically released in May and widely cited across the industry, will provide further guidance. Regardless of overall activity levels, the season is still expected to test supply chain preparedness. Brokers should plan to shift from reactive recovery tactics to proactive risk management to stay ahead of our evolving climate.
At Falvey, we work with brokers to align coverage with real-world exposures to ensure that clients are prepared before, during, and after a storm. Contact our risk management team today to discuss how your upcoming placements may be affected by this year’s hurricane season.
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