As risks evolve across the globe, understanding conflict isn’t just a job for governments—it’s essential for insurance providers, supply chain leaders, and anyone managing exposure in unpredictable markets. Recently, Steph Tully, Director of Risk Intelligence and Analytics at Falvey Insurance Group, sat down with Cliona Raleigh, President and CEO of ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project), for a compelling conversation on how risk is evolving and how data can help us make sense of it.
Their discussion, titled “Mapping Modern Risk,” covered ACLED’s pioneering conflict data methodology, its implications for global supply chains, and emerging geopolitical trends we should all be watching. Outlined below are the key takeaways from this conversation:
Cliona Raleigh explained that ACLED was founded during her PhD research and has become a global authority on political violence:
We collect information locally… from over 5,000 sources and in over 100 languages. Our methodology is designed to be as relevant in Paraguay as in Pakistan.
She emphasized the importance of independent, rigorous data collection through a trained global network of local researchers.
Raleigh described that a standout feature of ACLED’s tools is the Conflict Index, which provides a standardized way to understand and compare violence:
We wanted to correct for the idea that all violence had to look the same to be taken seriously.
The index is built from four components:
- Diffusion – how widespread violence is geographically
- Danger – how targeted it is toward civilians
- Deadliness – number of fatalities
- Fragmentation – how many armed groups are operating
Fragmentation is potentially the most important. Myanmar’s conflict, for instance, is defined by hundreds of armed groups, which drastically alters its security landscape.
Raleigh warned of a doubling in global conflict rates in recent years, driven by highly diverse conflicts in:
- Ukraine
- Gaza
- Sudan
- Mexico
These conflicts are setting the stage for 2025. We’re seeing violence proliferate in developed, middle-income, and low-income countries alike.
Key Emerging Trends:
- Economic incentives for violence, not just ideological ones
- Jihadi-aligned governments potentially emerging in parts of West Africa
- Cartel influence expanding into new regions like West Africa
- Corruption intertwined with conflict, creating sustained violence for material gain
Cliona identified geopolitical risks for insurers and supply chains in 2025:
- Pakistan – leadership instability and cross-border meddling
- Ethiopia – ongoing internal conflict
- Syria – decentralized violence and regional fractures
- West Africa – jihadi insurgencies and cartel activity
- Papua New Guinea – emerging complex disorder
These regions represent the kind of roiling, complex disorder that will continue as governments seek to secure their territories—sometimes successfully, often violently.
Steph concluded this insightful conversation by urging the audience to revisit the final segment of the interview for its dense insights and to explore more on ACLED’s work:
Go check out acleddata.com for more reports and granular insights.
As global businesses become increasingly interconnected, so too do the risks they face. ACLED’s work—and this partnership with Falvey—provides crucial visibility into the patterns and causes of modern conflict. In an age of rising instability, the ability to map and interpret modern risk is no longer optional—it’s essential.
Listen to the full interview below:
To explore more, visit acleddata.com for reports, dashboards, and real-time updates.
To learn more about Falvey, contact us today.
