Each hurricane season brings new forecasts, predictions, and headlines, and one factor that frequently being discussed is El Niño. While El Niño is often associated with fewer Atlantic hurricanes, it doesn’t necessarily lower hurricane risk.
For businesses with cargo in transit, marine operations, coastal properties, or complex supply chains, understanding how El Niño does (and doesn’t) affect hurricane risk can strengthen risk management strategies before the next storm hits.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Although it originates thousands of miles from the Atlantic, it has a significant influence on weather patterns around the world.
One of its most notable effects is an increase in vertical wind shear over the Atlantic. According to the NOAA, these stronger upper-level winds can disrupt developing tropical systems, making it more difficult for hurricanes to form and intensify. As a result, El Niño years often experience fewer Atlantic storms than average.
Does El Niño Equate to a Lower Hurricane Risk?
Being in an El Niño does not necessarily mean there is a lower risk when it comes to hurricanes. Because El Niño typically suppresses hurricane development, NOAA’s 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for a greater likelihood of a below-normal season. However, seasonal forecasts reflect overall activity, not where storms will form or make landfall.
It only takes one hurricane impacting a populated coastline, major port, or critical transportation corridor to create significant operational and financial losses. That is why it is crucial to keep in mind that seasonal weather forecasts should never replace the need for storm preparedness.
Why the Forecast Isn’t the Whole Story
As stated previously, it is a common misconception that fewer storms automatically mean fewer risks. A recent analysis suggests that El Niño should not be viewed as a simple “lower risk” signal. While the climate pattern is expected to suppress overall Atlantic hurricane activity, modeling indicates it may also redistribute landfall risk, meaning some areas could face greater exposure even during a quieter season.
It’s also important to remember that El Niño does not eliminate the potential for significant hurricanes. Storms can still develop in the Gulf of Mexico or move into the Gulf from other regions, where exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures can fuel rapid intensification before landfall. Even if the total number of storms is lower, a single fast-strengthening hurricane can create substantial operational and financial impacts for coastal communities and businesses.
At the same time, El Niño typically increases tropical cyclone activity across the eastern and central Pacific. That can create additional risks for businesses with operations, suppliers, or transportation routes connected to Mexico’s Pacific coast and other Pacific regions, reinforcing the need to evaluate hurricane risk beyond the Atlantic alone.
What This Means for your Client’s Business
Whether your client’s business relies on marine transportation, imports and exports, warehousing, or complex supply chains, hurricane preparedness remains essential regardless of the seasonal forecast.
Organizations should consider:
- Reviewing business continuity and disaster recovery plans.
- Evaluating supply chain vulnerabilities and transportation routes.
- Confirming contingency plans with logistics partners and key suppliers.
- Reviewing insurance programs to better understand hurricane-related exposures.
- Monitoring weather conditions throughout the season instead of relying solely on preseason forecasts.
Preparing for Whatever the Season Brings
El Niño is an important factor in hurricane forecasting, but it is only one piece of the big picture. While it may reduce the likelihood of an active Atlantic season, it cannot predict where storms will develop, how strong they will become, or which businesses may ultimately be affected. Combining seasonal awareness with operational planning, supply chain resilience, and appropriate insurance protection can help organizations better navigate hurricane-related risk, no matter what the forecast may be.
Understanding risk is only the first step; preparing for it is what makes all the difference. Falvey’s Risk Management team works alongside brokers and clients to evaluate hurricane-related exposures, strengthen operational resilience, and develop proactive strategies that help businesses navigate catastrophe with greater confidence.
